7 April 2013
Economic History Society Annual Conference 2013
Press Briefings
For information on other research presented at the annual conference, please contact Romesh Vaitilingam.
PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN THE UK: STEEP FALLS SINCE THE DAYS OF KEYNES AND KEYNESIANISM
There has been a long-term retreat of the UK government from capital investment in infrastructure, housing and utilities, according to Dr Martin Chick of the University of Edinburgh in a study presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference. This is important to recognise at time when there is renewed political interest in infrastructure investment and, more generally, in the scope for the state to undertake, procure and encourage fixed capital investment.
GETTING BACK TO GROWTH: HISTORY LESSONS FROM THE 1930s
How Britain escaped from the travails of the Great Depression and achieved 4% a year growth in the years from 1933 to 1937 has important lessons for today’s policy-makers, according to research by Professor Nicholas Crafts, presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference.
DOOM-MONGERS ARE WRONG ABOUT OUR CHILDREN’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS: EVIDENCE FROM VICTORIAN BRITAIN OF WHAT DRIVES TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
Reducing the cost of access to knowledge through a network of learned societies was the driving force behind the technological innovation of Britain’s Industrial Revolution. Similarly, the virtually costless access to knowledge permitted by global diffusion of the internet will drive continued rapid innovation to the benefit of future generations.
That is central argument of James Dowey, presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference. His quantitative analysis of London’s Great Exhibition of 1851 shows that what mattered for technological innovation in nineteenth century Britain was the cost of access to knowledge.
POLICY BLUNDERS THAT POSTPONE RECOVERY: LESSONS FROM THE 1930s ‘ROOSEVELT RECESSION’
As the US economy started to recover from the Great Depression, policy blunders pushed it back into the ‘Roosevelt’ recession of 1937-8. In a study presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference, Professor Peter Fearon draws lessons for today’s policy-makers:
* Any ‘exit strategy’ must provide monetary support for aggregate demand when fiscal stimulus is withdrawn.
* When it is not possible to reduce nominal interest rates, some inflation is beneficial as real rates can be reduced.
* Misjudged attempts to reduce inflation can lead to a decline in output and employment.
BRITAIN’S WEALTH LIES IN ITS PEOPLE
A recent World Bank report asked ‘Where is the Wealth of Nations?’ Calculations presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference show that for Britain, the answer is undoubtedly in its people.
Dr Jan Kunnas and his colleagues calculate that Britain’s ‘human capital’ has grown by a multiple of 123 over the past 250 years. The main drivers of this phenomenal growth have been the growth in the workforce and the growth in wages.
EXCHANGE RATE RIGGING IN THE MIDDLE AGES – HOW IT COMPARES WITH THE LIBOR SCANDAL
Some of the world’s biggest banks, including Barclays and RBS, have been fined heavily for rigging LIBOR (the London InterBank Offered Rate) – effectively fixing the cost of money. Likewise, medieval merchants were suspected of manipulating foreign exchange rates across Europe to hide their usurious profits.
Despite some initial similarities, further inspection reveals important differences between these two instances, according to research by Dr Tony Moore and colleagues, presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference.
SEARCHING FOR HONEST AND COMPETENT BANKERS – HOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND SELECTED STAFF DURING THE NAPOLEONIC WARS
Recruitment committees at the early nineteenth century Bank of England looked for competence in handwriting and working with figures. Beyond these two skills, they prized individuals who were sober, virtuous, debt-free, churchgoing and not involved in any political activism.
These are among the findings of research by Dr Anne Murphy, presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference.
‘LOCAL KEYNESIANISM’: THE VALUE OF BOOSTING PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
Since the 1970s, the failure of the private sector to create jobs outside London and the South East at anything like the required rate has been compensated for by new public sector jobs. A study by Professor Jim Tomlinson, presented at the Economic History Society’s 2013 annual conference, argues that this ‘local Keynesianism’ should not be seen as a problem.
