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Articles for inclusion in the Economic History Review
May 2005
Article 1:
Financial markets can go mad: evidence of irrational behaviour during the South Sea Bubble
Richard S. Dale, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, and Leilei Tang
This paper explores investor behaviour during the South Sea Bubble – the first major speculative boom and bust on the stock markets. Previous literature debates whether investors during this episode acted rationally. Newly acquired data involving parallel markets for the South Sea Company’s stock and subscription receipts are analysed, and widening valuation gaps are observed between these substitutable financial instruments. Rational explanations do not prove adequate, and the anomalies are explained by the biased decision-making of investors, and their tendency to view financial markets as wagering markets. The implications of these findings for the current debate on rationality in financial markets are identified.
Article 2:
Differential infant and child mortality in three Dutch regions, 1812–1909
Frans van Poppel, Marianne Jonker, and Kees Mandemakers
New micro-level data have recently become available for three provinces of The Netherlands for the period 1812–1912, which allow the study of the evolution of socio-economic differentials in infant and childhood mortality. The authors found significant differences in the levels of infant mortality by social group between the three provinces, and a wide variety in the pattern of social inequality. This showed the importance of the regional environment for the level of infant mortality in the nineteenth century. Contrary to expectations, strong social differences were also observed in neonatal mortality. Being born in an urban environment did not have a strong effect on survival during the first year of birth.
Article 3:
The decline and fall of the European film industry: sunk costs, market size, and market structure, 1890–1927
Gerben Bakker
In the 1900s, the European film industry exported throughout the world, at times supplying half the US market. By 1920, however, European films had virtually disappeared from America, and had become marginal in Europe. Theory on sunk costs and market structure suggests that an escalation of sunk costs during a rapid US growth phase resulted in increased concentration; eight surviving companies dominated international film production and distribution forever after. European film companies, although overall profitable, could not take part, and after the war could not catch up. US, British, and French time series data for 1890–1930 support the theory.
Article 4:
Commercials, careers, and culture: travelling salesmen in Britain, 1880s-1930s
Michael French
Within the lower middle-class, British commercial travellers established a strong fraternal culture before 1914. This article examines their interwar experiences in terms of income, careers, and associational culture. It demonstrates how internal labour markets operated, identifies the ways in which commercial travellers interpreted their role, and explores their social and political attitudes.
Article 5:
Working-class consumer credit in the UK, 1925–60: the role of the check trader
Sean O’Connell and Chris Reid
This article provides fresh insights into working-class credit by examining the history of check trading. It explains the system’s origins, and its dependence on a series of relationships involving check traders and their agents, retailers, and customers. Data from the market leader – Provident Clothing and Supply Co. Ltd – is analysed to explore the scale and scope of the sector, and to examine its history from the early 1920s to the 1960s. Check trading was both an important and controversial supplier of credit to working-class families, and the article explores criticisms of the system, and the reason for its popularity.
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